House Speaker Paul Ryan has said he will hold a vote Thursday on the American Health Care Act (AHCA), the Republican Party’s Obamacare replacement plan. But whether the bill will pass is still an open question. Below: Running updates on the vote counting, negotiation, and desperate spinning currently going down in D.C.

The current takeaway: Republicans have 237 seats in the house and need 215 votes to pass this bill, which means they can only afford 22 Republican “no” votes. The most recent running tallies list between 26 and 37 Republicans who have said they are “no” votes at this moment, meaning that if a vote were taken now the bill would not pass.

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